It’s been a bit of an unusual year for the AAA games industry.
It has been ladened with blockbuster, record-breaking releases, including Hogwarts Legacy, The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom, and Diablo 4. And those have come alongside other big IP, such as Resident Evil 4, Dead Island 2, Star Wars Jedi: Survivor, Final Fantasy 16, and Street Fighter 6.
New IP has fared less well, with Forspoken and Redfall missing in terms of quality and popularity. But there have been a handful of new indie games that have broken through, and Hi-Fi Rush found an audience via Xbox Game Pass.
It has been a big year but, outside of the many thousands of indie games, there have also been these gaps in the schedule. And that is set to continue. The release slate is spotty right up until October when, for some reason, everyone seems to be releasing their games within the same two-week period. And then it goes quiet again. As of right now, June has a stronger line-up than November.
Business that are still reliant on a strong, regular and deep slate of AAA releases – areas such as the media and retail – will feel the pressure to grow alternative revenue streams. A few interviews I’ve conducted recently have been precisely on this topic, with Ubisoft talking about its push into mobile, and GAME explaining its plans around toys.
There’s an argument that things will become more consistent as the business recovers from the setbacks caused by the COVID-19 lockdowns. But I remain unconvinced. Gamers are not exactly bereft of things to play. Live-service titles, an endless stream of great indie releases, subscription services filled with legacy games, and the fact that AAA titles are often hundreds of hours long… Gamers aren’t complaining about gaps in the schedule.
Looking ahead, after the recent spate of summer showcases, we now have a very good idea of what to expect from the rest of the 2023. It’s not the biggest line-up in terms of quantity (although if you’re a fan of 2D platformers, you’re in luck). In terms of the major third-party publishers, only Ubisoft appears to be showing up (outside of the usual sports titles).
There are two notable games we’ve not seen yet. Typically, FIFA and Call of Duty would be safe bets, but this year might be a little different. After 30 years, FIFA is being rebranded as EA Sports FC, and according to reports, this year’s Call of Duty is more like a standalone expansion to last year’s game. Yet we can still look at what else is to come.
Starfield
Xbox Series S and X, PC
September 6th
Why will it be a hit?
It’s from the makers of Fallout and Elder Scrolls, which are two of the biggest RPGs in the world. First announced in 2018, it frequently tops most anticipated lists and Xbox is billing it as its biggest ever launch. The game arrives day one in Game Pass, so it will draw a huge audience from the moment it’s released. Also, we should expect it to feature prominently alongside Xbox Series X and S hardware over the holiday sales period.
Why might it not be?
Bethesda Games Studios is a top tier developer, but its games are big and complex and can launch with technical issues. It’s also not coming to PlayStation, which has been the most popular platform for past Fallout and Elder Scrolls games.
Prediction?
Expect this to be the biggest game launch in Microsoft and Bethesda history, driving subscribers to Game Pass and boosting Xbox Series S and X sales.
Mortal Kombat 1
PC, PS4, Xbox Series S and X, Nintendo Switch
September 19th
Why will it be a hit?
The Mortal Kombat series has been consistently selling better with each iteration, and the last game shifted 15 million units (and was the fourth best-selling game in the US of 2019). MK1 was one of the star attractions at Summer Games Fest this month, and received positive press for its new gameplay additions and visuals. As a soft reboot for the series, it also acts as an entry point to new fans.
Why might it not be?
The genre is super competitive right now, with Street Fighter 6 just releasing and Tekken 8 not far away. Although the series is huge in the US, it isn’t as popular in the rest of the world.
Prediction?
It will be huge in North America and continue to grow over previous games.
Forza Motorsport
Xbox Series S and X, PC
October 10
Why will it be a hit?
This is the first Forza Motorsport in six years, and is a visual showcase for the Xbox platform. It’s the highest profile racing game of the quarter, too. Game Pass will give it a ready-made audience, and I’d expect this to be featured in hardware bundles – alongside Starfield – during the key Black Friday shopping period.
Why might it not be?
It is in that window where EA would typically launch is FIFA game, which will impact its performance in Europe. Forza Motorsport is also just not as popular as the Forza Horizon series, and 2021’s Forza Horizon 5 maintains an engaged audience today.
Prediction?
It will appeal to fans and Game Pass users, and would work well as a bundled game with Xbox Series X to showcase the hardware. Just don’t expect it to light up the charts.
Assassin’s Creed Mirage
PS5, PS4, Xbox Series S and X, Xbox One, PC
October 12
Why will it be a hit?
2020’s Assassin’s Creed Valhalla broke franchise records with over $1 billion in revenue. It’s the longest gap between Assassin’s Creed games (three years), and this one is proving popular with fans due to its pivot back to the series’ origins as a stealth action game (recent titles have been more like RPGs). It received a positive showing at Ubisoft’s showcase event earlier this month.
Why might it not be?
This is billed as a smaller, more nostalgic Assassin’s Creed game, rather than the big sequel to Valhalla. I pressed Ubisoft CEO Yves Guillemot on his expectations for the game, and he reiterated how it’s aimed at the series’ long-serving fans. It also launches just eight days before Spider-Man 2, a big single-player PS5 game.
Prediction?
It’s Assassin’s Creed, it’s on every platform and it looks good, so this will be no flop. But don’t expect anything close to $1 billion this time.
Alan Wake 2
PS5, Xbox Series S and X and PC
October 12
Why will it be a hit?
It’s the sequel to 2010 cult favourite Alan Wake, which has gradually grown a decent audience over the years. It’s also a successor to Control (a game set in the same ‘universe’), which attracted more than ten million players. It had a hugely successful showing at Summer Games Fest earlier in the month.
Why might it not be?
Alan Wake isn’t the biggest IP, and it is currently launching in the middle of a congested period for big single-player games – within a week of both Assassin’s Creed and Spider-Man. It is also digital-only, which limits its potential as we get closer to Christmas and around Black Friday. It’s a survival horror, which is an inconsistent genre in terms of sales. Resident Evil 4 remake (released in March) sold well, but the Dead Space remake (released in January) was substantially smaller, and The Callisto Protocol (released last December) didn’t meet expectations.
Prediction?
I worry for this one. The game looks superb, but if it sticks with its current release date, I can see it getting overlooked… just like the first game did back in 2010.
Spider-Man 2
PS5
October 20
Why will it be a hit?
We’ve had two games in Sony’s Spider-Man series over the last five years, which have sold a combined 33 million units. It’s the first major PS5-only release from Sony, and is developed by Insomniac, a studio that rarely puts a foot wrong. The Spider-Man brand is also riding high, with 2021’s No Way Home and 2023’s Across the Spider-Verse movies breaking records. PS5 is also this year’s best-selling console and Spider-Man 2 is primed to be its flagship game.
Why might it not be?
It is the third Spider-Man game in five years, so there may be some fatigue. It is also only on PS5, whereas the previous two games built an audience on PS4. There are a lot of games out in October.
Prediction?
Expect this to be the biggest game launch in PlayStation history, and a key selling point for PS5 this Christmas.
Super Mario Bros Wonder
Nintendo Switch
October 20
Why will it be a hit?
It’s Nintendo’s biggest game of Christmas, and the first 2D Mario game in ten years (discounting Super Mario Maker). The more recent 2D Mario games (the New Super Mario Bros series) are consistently big sales performers, and the port of New Super Mario Bros U on Switch has sold over 15 million units since its launch in 2019.
Mario Wonder looks to be a departure from those games, with unique gameplay that has created a buzz on Nintendo forums. The Mario brand is also huge right now, mainly due to the Super Mario Bros movie, which is the second biggest animated movie of all time.
Why might it not be?
There are more than 20 Mario games on Switch, including a 2D Mario game. And as we saw last year with Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope, Mario sequels on the same platform often report lower sales. It’s also launching on the same day as Spider-Man 2, and there is some cross-over between PS5 and Nintendo Switch owners. The Mario movie may have given the brand a boost but, as evidenced by The Last of Us and Sonic, success in TV and movies doesn’t always translate to the games in a meaningful way.
Prediction?
It looks mad and could be a real breakout hit. However, although it’ll clearly sell very well, I’m not anticipating the levels reached by last year’s Pokémon games or The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom at launch. Instead, I expect it to sell consistently well over a the whole Christmas period (and beyond). Get ready to throw those words in my face come October.
Cities: Skylines 2
PC, PS5, Xbox Series S and X
October 24
Why will it be a hit?
The original Cities: Skylines was Paradox’s biggest ever game. It has been consistently updated for eight years (its final update came in May) and has an active audience. The sequel is designed to be friendlier to Mods, and the PC and console versions were developed side-by-side to ensure the game works well across platforms (the original released on PC first). This year’s game is launching in Game Pass, giving it an immediate audience on PC and Xbox.
Why might it not be?
Transitioning players from one strategy game to another can be hard, as we saw last year with Two Point Campus. Sometimes, you just don’t need a sequel. Cities: Skylines’ success also spawned a resurgence in the genre, so its sequel faces a more competitive environment.
Prediction?
Game Pass will guarantee it a strong audience to build a lasting business on.
Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora
PC, PS5, Xbox Series S and X, Luna
December 7
Why will it be a hit?
It is part of the massive Avatar movie franchise, with last year’s movie becoming the second-fastest to reach $2 billion in box office takings. It’s officially part of the story, and fills in gaps between the first and second films. Creative by Massive Entertainment (the studio behind The Division), the game has drawn comparisons to Ubisoft’s hit franchise Far Cry. It’s clearly a huge, AAA open world title, and with (currently) a lack of games due in November and December, has a window all to itself.
Why might it not be?
The movie released last year, so it’s missed the hype around that. December is an unpredictable window, as it comes after the Black Friday sales weekend where a lot of Christmas shopping is done. There are also signs of fatigue towards Ubisoft’s open world experiences, after a string of similar games. It will be facing competition from all the single player games we’ve mentioned already, some of which will have just been on discount during Black Friday.
Prediction?
It’s a hard one to predict. If Ubisoft offers up a high-quality experience that’s at least a bit different to what it’s done before, then this could really breakout.
Sonic Superstars
PC, PS5, PS4, Xbox Series S and X, Xbox One, Switch
Late 2023
Why will it be a hit?
The Sonic brand is having a good time. The Sonic movies have performed very well, while last year’s Sonic Frontiers sold over 3.5 million copies. Whereas Frontiers was a departure from the traditional Sonic gameplay, Superstars is a more traditional 2D game that is pulling all the nostalgic tricks to draw in fans. The reaction at Summer Games Fest was positive.
Why might it not be?
Sonic is popular on Nintendo formats and find itself going up against a 2D Mario game. The developer Azrest has a patchy history, and its last game was the widely criticised Balan Wonderworld.
Prediction?
Mario is a far bigger franchise. However, the situation is reminiscent of the Mario vs Sonic ‘war’ of the 1990s, which Sega could lean into to generate attention for its game. Ultimately, I expect this one will appeal exclusively to the fans.
Those are the key games we’ve identified. There are more, of course, with the likes of The Crew Motorfest, Lords of the Fallen, Pikmin 4, Super Mario RPG remake and the return of Detective Pikachu, amongst others. Plus the inevitable game or two we just didn’t see coming.
There’s also some big expansions. Two add-ons to Pokémon Violet and Scarlet are due this year, which is significant when you consider those are the fastest-selling games in Nintendo history with over 22 million units sold.
Yet outside of the Call of Duty, NBA, and FIFA, I can’t see past Sony’s Spider-Man 2, Microsoft’s Starfield and Nintendo’s Super Mario Bros Wonder as the biggest games still to come from 2023.
